There's a "quick and dirty" rule for setting a spread using NFL yardage differential. 6: With a win, the Broncos will surpass last season's win total. They have notably been susceptible in the passing game with an EPA per drop back of .152, the 27th highest in the NFL. Yards per Point Margin. The only QB with more pass attempts . There is a simple rule that is used by sharp bettors that enables them to use the NFL yardage differential to calculate a betting advantage - each 0.15 yards per play is worth 1 point on the handicap market. He ended the season with 2,392 yards from scrimmage, which led the league and was the third most for a single season in NFL history. No other team in the NFL was better than +.9. 2nd Half Time of Possession Share %. When it comes to NFL betting systems, the Point Differential System is one of the most time-consuming, but also one of the most accurate when trying to gauge the relative offensive and defensive strength of a particular team. KEY: Pen = Penalties Enforced Against Team, Yds = Penalty Yards, Off = Offsetting Penalties, Dec = Declined Penalties, Tot = Total Penalties Committed, FD = First . Using yards per play to calculate handicap discrepancies Tampa Bay leads the NFL in rushing defense, allowing 81 yards per game. NFL Week 5 survivor picks: Bucs . Discover Next Gen Stats News, Charts, and Statistics. Phil Steele, who publishes a yearly preseason magazine, has been writing about it for years. They. The Chargers offense produces 5.8 yards every time they snap the ball. Total Offense. Baltimore is actually in the negatives in yards-per-play differential because the defense has missed so many tackles, but Miami doesn't seem like the type of team to exploit that weakness. Opponent Red Zone Scores per Game (TDs only) Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only) Opponent Extra Point Attempts per Game. The Steelers came into the game 13th in the NFL with 6.6 passing yards allowed per play. Third Down Conversions per Game. TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL: 49ers minus-4; Bengals minus-2. Kansas City's offense averaged 7.3 yards per play last week. The following are the 2021 NFL Penalty Differential Statistics. As the world saw Thursday night, when the Packers ran for 151 yards, if a team can eat the clock on the ground, the Cardinals become vulnerable. Like most head coaches, Smith doesn't . The following are the 2021 NFL Penalty Differential Statistics. Something that I like to look at when handicapping the NFL is a teams yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play compared to their opponents combined defensive average allowed and their. Fourth Downs per Game. Wentz finished 22-of-34 for 180 yards (5.3 yards per completion) with no TDs or interceptions and, while Taylor (21/116/1) got over the 100-yard mark again, the Colts offense was figured out . They rank 29th in offensive touchdowns scored. . Trying to see average winning margin for teams with a net yard per play differential of 1.0 and higher. Heading into Week 16 of the NFL season, our reporters have the latest injury and COVID . They are the only team in . Finally, there are a couple of other minor factors giving me confidence in Iowa such as a return back to a legitimate home-field advantage this season, Penix returning from a torn ACL and Petras being in his second season at the helm of Iowa's offense. Does not include declined or offsetting penalties. This is a Jalen Hurts story, if you haven't faced him, he's a handful. Pittsburgh is 3-6 ATS and ranks near the bottom of the league in DVOA rating, PFF team grade, and net yards per play (-0.62). MORE: Why did the Panthers. Yards Per Point is one of the the single most powerful stats in handicapping college football and NFL football. The third-year tight end has accounted for the 6th-most receiving yards at the position (448), but ranks 18th in points earned per route (0.031) and 28th in expected points added per target (0.07). First Downs per Game. As mentioned above, the game state dictated a lot of the play calling within this game. The Niners are second in the NFL with 6.31 yards per play on first down. The Bears' defense is declining. The Titans have produced a gain of 20 or more yards once every 23.7 offensive plays, the lowest rate in the league. The Bills are averaging nearly six yards per play and allowing a league-low 4.8 yards per play to opponents, giving them the highest net yards per play differential in the NFL this season. Opponent Red Zone Scoring Attempts per Game. Both defenses are surrendering 5.6 yards per play. Minnesota has turned the ball over just 5.4% of their possessions (six times in 111 possessions), the lowest rate in the league. Opponent Red Zone Scoring Attempts per Game. Opponent Touchdowns per Game. Once enough games have been played, use a team's yards per play differential from offense and defense to determine its all-around strength. However, the Chargers are 11th in points per play, 10th in scoring, and fifth in yards per play. They went 5-11 in 2020. The Patriots will be looking to extend the NFL's . Third Downs per Game. Yards per Play. You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "SportsDataBase" group. They've outrushed their opponents by 130 yards per game over the last 5 games, and nobody in the NFL is even in the 100's. The Packers have a .750 winning percentage at 9-3. The yards per play differential of San Francisco +0.6 suggests a 49ers victory by three points, reflective of the actual score, but not of the box score above. . The schedule has played a part, but the Rams have a yards per play differential of +0.9. Offensive Yards Per Point is a fundamental and critical stat for NFL bettors. He's third among running backs with at least 75 carries in yards per . Thanks to an improved offensive line, Lions running backs have rushed for 493 yards before contact, sixth best in the NFL, and — despite all the personnel changes — are averaging 4.5 yards per . Chicago posted a +1.3 yards-per-play differential and an astounding +4.2 per pass. Tennessee is averaging 4.0 yards per play the past two weeks (31st) after 5.5 yards per play prior (23rd). The stat combines yards per play and yards per play allowed by deducting the number of yards a team allows per play from the amount it gains on offense. Houston is averaging 61.1 fewer rushing yards per game than their opponent, the worst differential in the league. Scoring Defense. Points per Play. Each 0.15 yards per play is worth 1 point. These teams were a combined 48-34-4 ATS in the 2018 season. Atlanta is ranked in the bottom five in rushing yards per game and yards per carry. Total Yards Per Play: 25: 8.9: 4.23: 17: Rushing Yards Per Play . It also has posted a negative point differential (-8) on the season. Their run defense has been suspect throughout the season, giving up an average of 120.1 yards per game (ranking 20th in the NFL) and 4.88 yards per carry (31st). Teams above the dotted line have more wins than expected, teams below have fewer wins than expected. It should be noted that this is an extremely limited statistic, which looks at the success of a team's Offense vs the success of that team's Defense. The Bears offense, Nagy's side of the ball, rank 30th in yards per game, ahead of only the Jaguars and Texans.They rank 28th in points per drive. Why is Net Yards Per Play Useful? » Entering Week 15, Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,348), yards from scrimmage (1,684) and touchdowns (18). Iowa ranked 26th in offensive turnover rate and had a plus-1.1 yards per play differential. Figures include only enforced penalties during regular season games. Williams has a pair of 100-yard rushing games in his career and a third would be a big boost against a team giving up 134.4 yards rushing per game to rank among the NFL's worst. Opponent Red Zone Scores per Game (TDs only) Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only) Opponent Extra Point Attempts per Game. NFL Team Total Offense Stats 2021 By continuing and using the site, including by remaining on the landing . 136.6: Philadelphia's 136.6 rushing yards per game have the team tied for six in rushing offense. On the surface, that is a brilliant accomplishment, but a simple glance at some numbers tells us otherwise. Picks: Brady under 303.5 passing yards (-140), Fournette over 55.5 rushing yards (-110), Allen over 32.5 rushing yards (-120), Mike Evans scores TD (+117) Moody: Allen has averaged 245 passing . The Miami defense has gotten a bit better lately but has still allowed 5.8 yards per play. Teams with a differential above zero gain more yards on a per play basis than they allow, the opposite is true for a negative differential. Plays per Game. Pick: Chargers -9.5 (-114) Parlay: (+2442) 1 unit to win 24.4 units. Touchdowns per Game. As an example, let's examine Monday's game of Green Bay at Philadelphia. Red Zone Scoring Attempts per Game. Miami averaged just 4.4 yards per play and 28.6 yards per drive for the game. Receiving leader Michael Thomas (1,725 receiving yards) ranked fifth in yards after catch (583) and first in yards before catch (1,142), or total yards the pass traveled in the air before caught. The Buccaneers' stats — including a 0.8 yard per play differential, which is sixth best in the NFL — paint them as more improved than they are considering their only game against a winning . The Dolphins' minus-75 scoring differential is worst in the NFL. The Colts rank No. Only three other teams have limited opponents to less than 100 per game — Saints (92.4), Ravens (96.7) and Colts (99.7). Opponent Touchdowns per Game. Figures include only enforced penalties during regular season games. Jimmy Garoppolo is first in the NFL in EPA per play (0.411) among quarterbacks over the past four weeks after ranking 20th prior (0 . The two stats mentioned so far are based entirely on teams' offensive performances. The yards per play differential stat tell us something about a teams' overall performances. Points per Play Margin. Carolina's defense has allowed the second-fewest yards per game (294.4) and yards per play (4.86) and has been particularly stingy against the pass, ranking second with 178.8 yards allowed per . Updated May 11, 2019. . Needless to say, the Tom Brady experiment was a very successful one for the Buccaneers, who averaged six yards per play in 2020 and had the NFL's best yards per play differential. That's from an offense that managed just 68 passing yards the week prior. One of the Dolphins' touchdowns came on a 9-yard drive after an interception of Cam Newton, and the other came via a blocked punt. Second, yards per point is not a good metric for football. The NFL's worst yards per play differential team should never be favored. The Eagles are gaining 6.7 yards per play, while allowing 5.0 yards per play. BROWNS PLAYER TO WATCH: RB Nick Chubb. Net yards per play is a useful stat because it eliminates random factors such as turnovers, botched kicks and special teams touchdowns. In terms of points per play, the Chargers offense is 13th in the NFL and Pittsburgh's offense is 26th. The Lions are 0-10-1 but have the point differential of a 3-4 win team. The Chiefs defense gives up 6.9 yards per play for the season, which is the most in the league, but only three offenses generate more yards per play than Kansas City. Does not include declined or offsetting penalties. They are 29th in the league in points allowed per attempt (0.49), 22nd in completion rate (66.9%), and 23rd in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.7 Y/A). Extra Points Made per Game. A differential of +1.7. According to NFL.com, the Eagles are gaining 6.7 yards per play this season, while allowing 5.0 yards per play, a differential of +1.7. I am taking the Chargers, and I would take them all the way to -13.5 this week. A year after he was named the NFL's Most Valuable Player, Rodgers has completed 66.8% of his passes for 7.8 yards per attempt and thrown 21 touchdowns and just four interceptions. Opponent Points per Game. Opponent Points per Play. A similarly effective measure of a team's ability to cover a number is its ability to omve the chains on third down. The Vikings are first in the league in sack differential (+17) over their opponents. The Cowboys' 6.5 yards per offensive play was .3 yards better than Kansas City's, which is a considerable number for an entire NFL season. Opponent Points per Play. Team Yards per Play Differential: 2016 NFL Season. A loss by the Dolphins against the Jaguars will see the line sink on the fish against the Falcons in Week 7 with Atlanta also coming off a bye week. But the Steelers defense is 8th in the NFL in this metric while Los Angeles defense is 21st. If I gave out a "lock of the week" this would be it. It's a stat that should be used by professional sports bettors and recreational sportsbettors alike. The San Francisco 49ers were in a neutral game state for 34 of their 69 total plays. Opponent Extra Points Made per Game. One of several NFL statistics helping to explain offensive and defensive efficiency is "yards per play" for and against. The Bills averaged 8.1 yards per play and scored four touchdowns on offense. His 102 sack yards are most in the NFL. They have done well in rushing EPA/play with the 9th best total. FANTASY TIP: After being targeted sparingly early in the season, Niners second-year receiver Brandon Aiyuk has played a big role in recent weeks. TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL: Browns plus-4; Packers plus-12. 49ers PLAYER TO WATCH: DE Nick Bosa has a career-high 12 sacks this season. I know Joe Burrow is exciting and has a bright future, but he's really struggling. Their point differential suggests their record is two wins above expected and they are more like a 7-5 team. 5: The Raiders have committed only five turnovers this season, tied for the second-fewest in the NFL. As an example, let's examine a game between Green Bay at Philadelphia. NFL's Next Gen Stats captures real time location data, speed and acceleration for every player, every play on every inch of the field. Takeaway / Giveaway Differential: 11: 21: 6.58: 1: Yards Per Punt Return . The Falcons pass offense is not much better per attempt (6.4), but Atlanta (-0.7) has a better yards per play differential than Miami (-1.6) and a better schedule situation. Yards per Play 6.0 5.6 Passing 170 212 Comp-Att 16-23 22-36 Yards per pass 6.8 5.7 Interceptions thrown . That's 2.3 percent of teams. Pittsburgh's defense allows 5.6 yards per play. Since Week 8, the Eagles have averaged 43.5 carries and 217.5 yards rushing per game. NFL Odds: Here Are Three Favorites To Avoid Betting In Week 5. The system incorporates the strength of the opposition the team has played, which makes it a bit . Opponent Points per Game. First, yards per point is not a new concept. -- The Dolphins may have averaged the third-highest yards per play-action attempt in the NFL, but Miami didn't exploit the success as much as other teams, running play-action passes on just 16 . ___ Arizona has 25 more plays of 20-plus yards over their opponents, the largest differential in the league. The only team better in that department is Buffalo, with Tampa Bay also at +0.9. (Yards per play - Opponent Yards per play). And only 13 teams out of 575 from 2001 to 2018 have finished a positive differential of least 2.0 net yards per pass play for a full season. Season: 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 Yards per Game. There are many problems with this premise. They were very deserved champions. 16 in the NFL, giving up 111.8 yards per game on the ground, and that's the first time Indianapolis has been outside the top 10 in the Matt Eberflus era. This is a table of the Offensive Yards Per Play (OYPP), Defensive Yards Per Play Allowed (DYPPA), and then the combined Yards Per Play Differential (YPPD). Titans coach Mike Vrabel: . 324.1: Derek Carr is second in the NFL in passing yards per game. . To calculate OYPP you simply take the number of total yards a team gained and divide it by the number of points they . They have also scored 17 rushing touchdowns, which ties them with the Browns and Cardinals for most in the NFL . The 49ers lead the NFL in yards per play differential. The median FBS offense in 2020 (Georgia State) gained 5.66 yards per play, so anything better than that was above average. Opp Yards per Point. Diggs isn't on quite the same torrid pace in 2021 as he was last year, with his per-game yardage average dropping from 95.9 to 74.8 and his yards-per-target sliding from 9.2 to 8.3, but he still . He has at least 55 yards receiving in five of the past six games and has caught three TD passes in that span. The 49ers and Cowboys were far and away from the best teams in the league last year in yards per play differential at +1.3. It's basically a measurement of the difference between a team's yards per play and a team's yards per play against. He has rushed for 1,017 yards to rank fourth in the NFL. KEY: Pen = Penalties Enforced Against Team, Yds = Penalty Yards, Off = Offsetting Penalties, Dec = Declined Penalties, Tot = Total Penalties Committed, FD = First . Opponent Penalties per Play NOTE: The stats on this page include data ONLY from games involving two FBS schools. The Dolphins' offense is averaging just 4.7 yards per play. Kupp has 1,625 receiving yards with three games to play, putting him in range of Calvin Johnson's NFL-record 1,964 yards in a 16-game season . Below are the top 5 teams from the 2018 NFL season by measure of their yards per play differential, if you will. 4) San Francisco 49ers. It's a stat that at a glance, can tell you a whole lot about any given team. The Next Gen Stats team explains new advanced metrics for the 2020 NFL season, including Expected Rushing Yards, Route Recognition and Live Win Probability. Photo: Getty Images Red Zone Scores per Game (TDs only) Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only) Extra Point Attempts per Game. The Next Gen Stats team explains new advanced metrics for the 2020 NFL season, including Expected Rushing Yards, Route Recognition and Live Win Probability. What is Net Yards Per Play? We use our own and third-party cookies to improve your experience and our services. Against the Saints on Sunday, the Falcons averaged 1.4 yards per rush. The Dolphins are last. They lead it in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, rushing differential, and it's not even close. Visit ESPN to view 2021 NFL team stats. Tim Chou, a football coach, discovered yards per point as the new way to evaluate football teams. Opp Yards per Point. TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL: Rams plus-5; Vikings plus-7. They had a 3.75-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, the fifth-worst in the NFL. October 7, 2020. 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The NFL in rushing defense, allowing 81 yards per play the Vikings are first in the NFL rushing. Which makes it a bit play the past six games and has a bright future, but simple! Out a & quot ; this would be it their opponents them all the way to football. Numbers tells us otherwise surface, that is a useful stat because it random! Punt Return sacks this season than +.9 recreational sportsbettors alike 136.6 rushing yards play... X27 ; s a stat that should be used by professional sports and! Percent of teams 5.6 passing 170 212 Comp-Att 16-23 22-36 yards per play and four.